Impact of the global epidemic of COVID-19 in Bangladesh

Many economists and organizations have predicted that the biggest and far-reaching recession in the world in the last few centuries due to the coronavirus epidemic will have a huge detrimental effect on Bangladesh as well. This will significantly reduce all economic activities of Bangladesh, gross domestic product (GDP). Industrial production, sales of goods and income of the people will decrease and layoffs, unemployment and poverty will increase. In a recent forecast for the future of the global economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has made quite positive predictions about Bangladesh. Bangladesh has the best position in the list of GDP growth rates of the countries by 2021. Bangladesh was able to grow its GDP by 7.9% in 2019, which is predicted to hold at 2% in 2020 despite all the crises related to Corona. The World Bank's forecast is similar. They talked about 2-3 percent. In the case of the United States, China, India and Pakistan, it will be -5.9; 1.2; 1.9 and -1.5. Bangladesh's GDP growth rate in 2020 could be 9.5%. Disease Covid-19 virus species SARS-Cov-2 first infected Narayanganj and Madaripur (under treatment in Dhaka) (first in the capital: Tolarbagh, Mirpur, Dhaka Arrival date 7 March 2020 (1 year, 6 months, 1 week and 3 days) Origin Wuhan, Hubei Province, China 15,26,542 confirmed deaths 14,75,235 deaths 26,70 deaths 1.6% Region District-wise affected Dhaka metropolitan areas Graphs

Official Website: Corona Info

A joint survey and survey by Data Sense and Development Coordination found that the ongoing epidemic crisis has reduced the income of 84% of households in Bangladesh and put 102.2 million people at economic and health risk. In addition, more than 1.4 million Bangladeshi migrant workers have returned or are returning home after losing their jobs. Among them are the newly impoverished families. The number of extremely poor people at high economic risk is 46.3 million and the number of people at high health risk is 36.3 million. Of the households surveyed, at least 1 member of the 34.7% household lost their job and average household income decreased by about 64% between March and May. Exports in the readymade garments sector decreased by 74% in April 2020 as compared to April 2019. Between mid-March 2020 and April 6, 1,117 factories closed and about 2.2 million garment workers lost their jobs. The study found that low-income people were at higher risk of contracting the disease. In addition, the death of earning members of these families will increase the risk of starvation and malnutrition among women and children. It has been claimed that due to lack of coordination across the country, food and cash assistance provided by the government to the poor and the extremely poor is not reaching them properly. The ongoing epidemic crisis has created new types of economic, social and digital divisions in Bangladesh. It is known that only 34% of households in Bangladesh have a smartphone and 54% of households have access to television, which results in a large number of children being excluded from digitally run educational activities. Some experts have suggested that the Rs 100 scholarship given to 6 lakh primary students in Bangladesh could be raised to Rs 500 now as a matter of urgency. In this way the delivery of aid to the right place can be assured. Socio-Economic Impact Bangladesh's economy is 39th in the world and 29th in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) which is 2nd in South Asia. Bangladesh has achieved GDP growth at an average rate of 7.3 percent over the past decade and is currently the 7th fastest growing economy in the world. In terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), the current per capita GDP in Bangladesh is ৬ 4,600. According to the World Bank's 2019 data, the total labor force of Bangladesh is 6,00,09,353. Bangladesh's GDP in 2019 was ৭ 318.465 billion which is (60.918 billion in 2020 (estimated on the basis of purchasing power). In 2016 and 2019, the GDP growth rate was 8% and 7.9% respectively. The probability rates in 2020 and 2021 will be 2% and 9.5% respectively. Bangladesh's GDP growth comes mainly from 5 sectors (manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, transportation, construction and agriculture) and in the last financial year (2018-19) these sectors contributed 6 percent (7.5 trillion rupees) to GDP. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Bangladesh's GDP grew by 7.15% in the last financial year, at a fixed price of Tk 11,05,893 crore. In recent years, Bangladesh has been achieving higher GDP growth from the 'services' and 'industrial' sectors comparing agriculture. According to the data of 2016, the GDP of Bangladesh in 'services', 'industry' and agriculture sector is 52.11 respectively; 33.8% and 14.23%. At present, 'foreign income' (remittance) and 'readymade garment industry' (garments) are one of the driving forces of Bangladesh's economy. Although Bangladesh earns the highest amount of foreign exchange from the readymade garment industry (exports), at the same time due to the cost of purchasing its raw materials from abroad, remittances alone are one of the major sources of foreign exchange earnings in Bangladesh. Again, due to the fact that Bangladesh imports more than it exports, the deficit in the foreign exchange reserves of Bangladesh Bank is mainly met by using remittance currency. Bangladesh mainly increases their foreign exchange reserves (Bangladesh Bank's reserves) through 'expatriate income' (remittances). According to the 2017 census, Bangladesh ranks 9th among the countries receiving the most remittances in the world.

In 2019, remittances to Bangladesh came to 1 lakh 55 thousand 73 crore 35 lakh taka (US ৮ 1,833 crore) which is 20 percent more than in 2016. In 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2015, remittances came to US, 1,553, 1,353, 1,361 and US, 1,531 crore respectively.

Bangladesh receives a large amount of remittances before this every year and since 2020 the government has been giving incentives at the rate of 2% (Rs. 2 per 100) on remittances sent by expatriates.

The 'readymade garments' sector accounts for 16% of Bangladesh's total GDP, accounting for 63% of Bangladesh's total exports last year (Rs 3,000 crore).

In 2019, Bangladesh was the 42nd largest exporter in the world in terms of export earnings. In 2016, Bangladesh's share in the global garment market was 6 percent and it was the second largest country in the world in terms of garment exports. In 2019, the contribution of goods and services export sector to the GDP of Bangladesh was 14.6%. According to the United States-based organization Green Building Council, Bangladesh has six of the top 10 (environmentally friendly) factories in the world in the readymade garment industry.

According to the Bangladesh Economic Survey 2019, the total labor force of Bangladesh engaged in agriculture is 40.6%. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 47.61 percent of households in Bangladesh are dependent on agriculture.

Agriculture and forestry account for more than 10 per cent of Bangladesh's GDP, amounting to Rs 1,07,000 crore. In the last financial year, 75,000 crore has been added to the economy of Bangladesh through crop production, 15,000 crore through cattle rearing and 16,000 crore through afforestation.

Many economists and organizations have predicted that the biggest and far-reaching recession in the world in the last few centuries due to the spread of coronavirus will have a huge detrimental effect on Bangladesh as well. This will significantly reduce all economic activities of Bangladesh, gross domestic product (GDP). Industrial production, sales of goods and income of the people will decrease and layoffs, unemployment and poverty will increase.

At present, 4 out of every 5 people in the total full or part-time workforce in the world are losing their jobs in one way or another due to coronary heart disease. However, in a recent forecast for the future of the global economy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has made quite positive predictions about Bangladesh. Bangladesh has the best position in the list of GDP growth rates of the countries by 2021. Bangladesh was able to grow its GDP by 7.9% in 2019, which is predicted to hold at 2% in 2020 despite all the crises related to Corona. The World Bank's forecast is similar. They talked about 2-3 percent. In the case of the United States, China, India and Pakistan, it will be -5.9; 1.2; 1.9 and -1.5. Bangladesh's GDP growth rate in 2020 could be 9.5%. In the case of the United States, China, India and Pakistan, it will be 4.6; 9.2; 6.4 and 2.0.

Social Instability and Violence: According to a survey conducted by the Institute of Health Economics, University of Dhaka, the economic loss of Bangladesh from March 26 to April 28 (30 days) is more than Tk. 1,00,000 crore. The average daily loss in agriculture, industry and services due to the lockdown is around Rs. According to the survey, if there is a lockdown in the entire month of May, the amount of damage could exceed Rs 200,000 crore, which is about 9 per cent of the GDP of the last financial year.

The daily losses in industry (manufacturing and construction), services and agriculture are 1,131, respectively; 2000 and 200 crore.

As of April 19, Bangladesh's domestic and export-oriented economies have stagnated. Experts say the impact will soon be felt in the job market, which will result in the dismissal of a large number of working people. The International Labor Organization (ILO) says the coronavirus will cause 19.5 billion people to lose their full-time jobs worldwide in the next three months, with 125 million living in Asia and the Pacific. A study by Oxfam, a donor organization, claims that 130 million people in the region will become poor. According to the ILO, besides housing and food, the construction, retail, business and administrative sectors are also at special risk.

According to the Policy Research Institute, a non-governmental research organization in Bangladesh, at least 1.5 crore people in Bangladesh will lose their jobs and at least 50 million people will be in uncertainty due to corona hyperplasia (an average of 4 members per family). The Bangladesh Garment Workers Trade Union Center says workers in hundreds of factories have already been laid off. Another source said that many senior officials of the factory authorities have also been asked to voluntarily go on leave for at least six months.

A joint study by the Power and Participation Research Center (PPRC) and the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) found that low-income people would suffer the most in the economic crisis caused by this extreme, and Bangladesh would continue to be prone to poverty. Rickshaw pullers, day laborers, housemaids, restaurant workers, small floating traders, auto drivers and peasants, fishermen, shopkeepers and expatriates in the villages will also be included.

The Bangladesh Poultry Industries Central Council (BPICC), the central body of the poultry industry in Bangladesh, has claimed that 2 million people involved in the industry will soon be unemployed and the loss in the sector will be around Tk 3,350 crore by April 30. So far, about 6 million people are directly or indirectly involved in the industry, of which about 40 percent are women. It is also said that another 3 million dependent people will fall into poverty.

According to the Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD), a non-governmental research organization in Bangladesh, the surge will have an equally negative impact on the labor market as it has on business. According to the latest data, there were a total of 74 million (approximately) workers in Bangladesh, of which 24 million were engaged in agriculture and 40 million in industry and services.

And according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), there are 34 million poor people in Bangladesh, of whom 25 million are extremely poor. The Bangladesh government has allocated Rs 60 crore to help day laborers, rickshaw and van drivers, newspaper hawkers, construction, motor and hotel workers and other professionals who have lost their jobs due to long leave or partial lockdown.

এশিয়ান ডেভেলপমেন্ট ব্যাংক (এডিবি) একটি প্রতিবেদনে বলেছে যে, নির্মাণ খাত ও খুচরা ব্যবসায়ের সাথে জড়িত শ্রমিকরা তুলনামূলক বেশি পরিমানে কাজ হারাবেন। হোটেল-রেস্তোরা, সেবা খাতের কর্মীরা বেশি কাজ হারাতে পারেন।

বাংলাদেশ ইন্সটিটিউট অব লেবার স্টাডিজ (বিলস) এর মতেও হোটেল, রেস্তোঁরা ও নির্মাণ খাতের শ্রমিকরা বিশেষভাবে ঝুঁকিতে পড়বেন।

অতিমারীতে প্রবাসী বাংলাদেশীদেরও বেকারত্ব বাড়ছে এবং এর নেতিবাচক প্রভাব প্রবাসী আয়ে (রেমিট্যান্স) দেখা যাচ্ছে। ৭ এপ্রিলের তথ্যানুসারে, গত ২ মাসে বাংলাদেশের প্রবাসী আয় কমেছে তিন হাজার কোটি টাকা (৩৬ কোটি ডলার)। প্রবাসীদেরকে সংশ্লিষ্ট দেশের দূতাবাসের মাধ্যমে সহায়তা দেয়ার পরামর্শ দিচ্ছেন অর্থনীতিবিদ ও এ খাতের সংশ্লিষ্ট ব্যক্তিরা।

ওয়েজ আনার্স কল্যাণ বোর্ডের দেয়া তথ্যানুসারে বর্তমানে বিশ্বের ১৬০টি দেশে এক কোটিরও বেশি প্রবাসী বাংলাদেশী রয়েছেন যারা বছরে ৫৩ হাজার কোটি টাকা প্রবাসী আয় (১৮ বিলিয়ন ডলার রেমিটেন্স) বাংলাদেশে পাঠান। বাংলাদেশের মোট রফতানি আয়ের অর্ধেকের বেশি এটি। বেসিস থেকে জানানো হয়েছে বাংলাদেশের ফ্রিল্যান্সার ও গীগ অর্থনীতির সাথে যুক্ত ব্যক্তিরাও কাজ হারাচ্ছেন। আবাসন উদ্যোক্তাদের সংগঠন রিহ্যাব জানিয়েছে যে, নির্মাণ শিল্পের সাথে প্রত্যক্ষভাবে জড়িত ৩৫ লাখ লোক কর্মসংস্থান ঝুঁকিতে আছে।

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